If You Want to Call the Election, Trust Vegas
10 Nov 2015
“While there is no shortage of people making predictions about who will become the next Commander in Chief, almost every source of information has its own reason for bias. The media tends to report on the more outrageous candidates even when they’re not performing well in the polls. Pundits focus on their favorites or those that they have ready access to. Many polls have no shortage of issues with their data. It’s difficult to know who to trust. One group that has a vested interest in getting it right are the odds makers in places like Las Vegas and the United Kingdom.” So says my Dare We Say co-host, media strategist, Shawna Vercher.
Since the odds makers make their money based on accuracy, they are likely the only source the public can count on to present facts based on analysis, not personal bias or political persuasion.
According to the popular British betting website Paddy Power, which prides itself on a history of accuracy when predicting U.S. elections, Hillary Clinton has a 5 to 6 chance of becoming the next President. Her closest rival at this point is Marco Rubio, predicted with a 4 to 1 chance. Donald Trump appears third at 8 to 1…nearly twice as high as Jeb Bush who is listed fifth (behind Bernie Sanders) with 14 to 1 odds. This should also tell you the dire straits of the current Republican party when Senator Sanders, a self-avowed Democratic Socialist, has better odds than Jeb Bush of becoming President. In most polls 49% of Americans say they would never vote for a Socialist. So Bernie is doing pretty damn good.
It isn’t surprising to see the telegenic Rubio near the top. Republicans wants to package him as the Latin Barack Obama. But while he seems to perform well in front of billionaire donors, he is a little less sure — or consistent — on the debate stage and elsewhere. It remains to be seen whether he will grow into his shoes. And regardless of Senator Rubio’s shortcomings or that of other candidates, I still have grave doubts that the currently popular Trump will be the Republican nominee.
Watch the latest episode of Dare We Say to see how these professional bookies are betting our politics will turn out and then weigh in on whether you think they have it right so far…